Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 28 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 21 July 2026 at 19:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 10th strongest of the 25 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 24 May 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 21 at 2:42PM EDT until July 21 at 3:15PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
Urban PEI: 20,409 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 24 May 2026
- June 18, 2026 · score 58 · 13.0 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 28 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 28 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.8299, -83.2653 |
| Nearest City | Portsmouth (26 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 20.4K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Date | 2026-07-21, time not reported by the source |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.238094bce29e0e3e5678e969bc235b61 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-21, time not reported.
First archived: 2026-07-21T18:43:00.198Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Goochland, VA; Hanover, VA; Louisa, VA; Amherst, VA; Bedford, VA; Campbell, VA; City of Lynchburg, VA; Caroline, VA; Hanover, VA; Louisa, VA and 20 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 21 at 2:42PM EDT until July 21 at 3:15PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-07-21T15:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 23 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.238094bce29e0e3e5678e969bc235b6134ad0f96.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.88b59e3b7fa78616381e0bfad85c15a33db44564.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9e65997dac09427cac6615345a539014587bb9fa.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.baaa658413764fe35e7ff358c3a968bf2acf4bfc.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ab9e5982dc4e76b1a23dd1d8a5e795e94587a7c5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.14872b7675a7247011d06fffad954c337ff2b988.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b384f57a08cbf8ac09494632f12b533455218d01.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.68d67bc6c3cd8c4310c85b5f2608ae61e7ac2f84.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.209c4a6fb22aa5de83da348cddf2dc77b77910f9.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f3d0a46c4af4a07e6e6c8416f9f1c78998192ee8.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.964f40077530df08986f243c3edba4cd0cef6f15.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.70fadcbbf73a67df567f1cd43ee76f5e3ed522a8.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e52c4e633bb394fd3fa406e38a2a1ea2f963886f.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d1b74e43c4ca77ffad1420a01fcb0ef3441cdff8.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f60a5da5319bc5b98aa1551c7347b410b655fb59.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e7fd96a3abe1ffd779cd8adc0f5944ba285eb1ba.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1c0a6963d4a5a76a66564605061bd0749e2c153e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b3340c321057245ed317565f95a3a951821bf697.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.328645a5b7f7413bc12330962e561dc7c63bdd9d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b5a714a32b85e4007a2b4aa99a999cc3ee164454.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.10229afbdc7a55115c06e1b4a5e44d49a6190a25.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6d20a5df8df814eb3281422990220537822d06c8.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f9d3503a7f3e62a3ee4c0728633132b04200ccab.002.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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